Webinar: Power Hour

Two of Amplify Investment Partners unit trusts have reached a 10-year milestone boasting a long-term track record of outperformance. The Amplify SCI* Defensive Balanced Fund and the Amplify SCI* Strategic Income Fund have exemplified and proven Amplify’s strategy of producing exceptional performance through active management by agile, independent managers.

Amplify Investment Partners has launched a new SA flexible equity fund, the latest addition to its growing number of high-performing funds.

Amplify, whose funds are managed by independent boutique managers, has grown assets under management by 580% since 2018 to R53bn with strong performances across its local and global unit trusts, and hedge funds.
Its latest unit trust, the Amplify SCI* SA Flexible Equity Fund, managed by Fairtree Asset Management, aims to outperform inflation by 5% over three to five years. It is a multi-asset flexible equity fund, with SA-only equity exposure of 40% to 80%, aiming to preserve capital at lower risk than a pure equity portfolio.

Opportunities in the equities market are shrinking, resulting in an increased focus on downside protection, said Etienne Roux, analyst at Amplify SCI* Wealth Protector Fund manager, Truffle Asset Management. With the number of companies shrinking, valuations depressed, multiples low, and several big companies no longer on the JSE, liquidity has been significantly reduced.
But the fund’s managers see many great investment opportunities, including government bonds. As loadshedding has improved, there should be a positive effect based on the prior year effect it had in GDP. 50% of the JSE index are SA-focused businesses that have had 10 to 12 years of exceptional trading conditions, so if the country gets a few things right, there will be significant opportunities and a lot of shares that have been overlooked could provide investment opportunities. The fund sees opportunities in companies that are cleaning up or bulking up. There are also new listing opportunities.

Philosophically, Universal health care is a good thing for the citizens of South Africa and access to healthcare services is a basic human right as defined in the constitution, but the NHI Act in its current form has faced significant resistance.
There are obvious challenges from a human and financial capital standpoint, as well as questions over the capacity of the state to deliver on such a complicated system, something which has proven challenging globally.

It should be clear that geopolitics can affect inflation, and studies have shown that inflation affects election outcomes. It also affects interest rate policies, and it seems that a possible goods inflation resurgence could mean that US rate cuts might be slower than expected. Russia-Ukraine diplomacy seems a distant dream currently, yet I hope for diplomatic progress. War is inflationary, peace is disinflationary.
A multipolar world brings greater geopolitical uncertainty, and we need to be alert to its affects.

As half of the world’s population goes to the elections polls this year, war in the Middle East and Ukraine continues and inflation in most developed markets appears to be cooling, active managers are taking advantage of the volatility this creates to apply disciplined investment strategies.
Amplify Investment Partners expects persistently high interest rates to be a headwind for global equity markets, especially the US where market valuations remain high relative to history and to emerging markets.
“We have however seen that some companies in the tech industry (which has driven the total US market higher) have bucked the trend and continue to perform above market expectations as future earnings remain attractive,” Amplify’s head of positioning, Nico Janse van Rensburg says, adding that as bottom-up fundamental managers, Amplify’s fund managers look at share level to find opportunities.

Investor sentiment towards Naspers and Prosus appears to be warming in early 2024 after uncertainty over Chinese tech company Tencent weighed heavily on these shares in 2023. Naspers and Prosus trade at significant discounts to Tencent, in which they have a significant shareholding, and to their own net asset value. Their inability to unlock this value, and uncertainty over Tencent and the Chinese economy, has resulted in nervousness among investors, especially given their dominance in terms of value and trade on the JSE. In December 2023, the introduction of proposed draft gaming regulations by the Chinese regulator saw Naspers lose 9.7% and Prosus lose 10.6%, while Tencent was down 13% in rand terms. But there has been some recovery in January, after fund managers bought into the dip. Managers of Amplify Investment Partners funds consider Naspers and Prosus good value at current levels, and some used the opportunity to buy.

Amplify’s managers say the trajectory or outcome of various events that are already known in 2024 hold high risks and uncertainties. These include local national elections, the power crisis, Transnet’s rail and ports crisis, war in Ukraine and the Middle East, US GDP growth and the Fed’s response and Chinese economic recovery.
There is generally consensus among Amplify’s managers that the key lies in a balanced and adaptable approach with a diversified portfolio. Geopolitical risk globally, elections (notably in the US, Russia and the EU), local elections and continued local economic pressures point to continued uncertainty and volatility, and a relatively defensive portfolio positioning. Amplify’s managers, who have proven their ability to perform well during volatility, remain active and true to their philosophy and practice and remain cautiously optimistic for 2024.

Low risk instruments provide attractive returns with limited risk, and a more conservative position in the current environment is suitable. SA equities are extremely cheap compared to history, global markets, and emerging markets. There has been a structural change in terms of capital flow as Regulation 28 changes saw a lot of local managers increase offshore exposure at the expense of local, while foreign investors are not convinced on SA’s prospects. This leaves lots of opportunities on the local market, with companies on 6 or 7 PEs and decent dividend yields, and with some growth and prospects determined by themselves rather than macro conditions. This is positive for local equities, relative to especially the US which expensive, and the fund has increased its allocation.

By taking inspiration from the natural world, we can navigate unpredictable waters with greater clarity and purpose. A predatory compass helps guide us to resilience, growth, success and more.

Our story isn’t just about managing assets; it’s about blazing a trail through market dynamics with purpose and deep commitment. Intelligence meets impact, made meaningful. That’s the Amplify story.

Our story isn’t just about managing assets; it’s about blazing a trail through market dynamics with purpose and deep commitment. Intelligence meets impact, made meaningful. That’s the Amplify story.