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15 May 2024
Can investors still ignore geopolitics?
It should be clear that geopolitics can affect inflation, and studies have shown that inflation affects election outcomes. It also affects interest rate policies, and it seems that a possible goods inflation resurgence could mean that US rate cuts might be slower than expected. Russia-Ukraine diplomacy seems a distant dream currently, yet I hope for diplomatic progress. War is inflationary, peace is disinflationary.
A multipolar world brings greater geopolitical uncertainty, and we need to be alert to its affects.